Moxie Think

Once in awhile I can be impressed. A rendezvous at popular watering hole, The Rio, in Fort Collins was the scene of memorable jackassery this weekend as a band of brothers, wearing impeccably tailored suits of the finest polyester cloth in shades of turquoise and burgundy, were gathered together.

One might think this was just a silly night out for aging hipsters, but no. Upon professional introduction and business card presentation, “itsthesuit” member Dr. Kenneth Noisewater explained the 4 year journey from a brew fest in Fort Collins to forming ‘Chapters of The Suits’ in states like Indiana and Kansas and becoming one of the slowest growing, really cool groups in America.

I promised Dr. Noisewater a bit of citizen journalism on my highly trafficked blog. After reading through the organization’s web site, I can tell you these guys are on to something. Forget the Masons, the Elks, the Sertoma club; itsthesuits is where it’s at and with a little more exposure and a few more groupies, these guys can quit their day jobs selling microwaves to motels and retro-dress America.

Sadly there is no female equivalent, largely because our sensitive skin cannot handle fabrics like polyester or naugahide. However, you can bet this aging hipster (me) will help drive membership and groupie’s to follow this band of brothers in their show of one upsmanship as they compete at organized events of different skill levels and calibers to fulfill a unified mission of the highest possible level of jackassery.

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Arizona Comcast subscribers get full male nudity during Super Bowl 43, while the rest of the country gets this Doritos commercial. I doubt this flub was intentional, but I do find it funny they suggest ‘foul play’ for showing 30 seconds of porn from Club Jenna* to the unsuspecting public.  Comcast is apparently “mortified.”
If you have nothing else to do today, you can watch and vote for your favorite 30 second spot here.

*The Club Jenna spot is unavailable as this is a professional blog about important stuff that no one really reads, but helps my organic search. Showing porn is so last year SEO.

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So, my son climbs in the car after school today to announce that he is incredibly upset with me. This is not a shocking moment - I am often know as “mean”, “unfair” among other things.

Today, however, it seems my son experienced turmoil at the lunch table. Upon opening his lunch, there were no Pringles. None. This is, indeed, my fault and I admit to leaving them behind on the counter this morning and to later devouring them myself.

Beyond my negligence with the Pringles, our story quickly turns to a lesson in value, more specifically the subjective value of an object. My son did not just want to eat his Pringles; he wanted to trade his Pringles for another more desirable item of limited supply, Scooby Snacks, from his buddy Anton. With nothing of perceived equal value left in his lunch box, my son was left to trade his entire peanut butter and jelly sandwich for Anton’s Scooby Snacks.

One might suggest a lot from this social economics lesson; the value of Scooby Snacks is inflated by the public and/or Anton may indeed be posing as an inside trader for Nabisco, that my child is following in the footsteps of certain forefathers who never quite understood that a sandwich was far more valuable than cookies (the same ancestors later purchased other goods and services of questionable value –like homes, cars and really nice handbags in exchange for blood, sweat/tears and hard cash), or one could surmount that Pringles’ value could rapidly exceed Scooby Snacks, Facebook, or possibly gold.

I will be reviewing a little neoclassical economics with my son and perhaps teaching him to loan his sandwiches for interest (extra Scooby Snacks) which he can then sell to other kids on the playground or maybe the US Treasury. Perhaps Anton can even get in on the back end and hedge the whole operation with a fund comprised of bets on which kids can pay back their loans.

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There is no reason not to laugh at 2008 and giggle going into 2009, we all paid for it! I’ve always liked Dave Barry and sure enough, he’s put together a grand laugh as we bail out 2008. This is his 2008 year in review and worth circulating for a time capsule.

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Or, the more men and women one sees who do not care to dress for the day, the worse the economic situation is.

I was captivated this morning by a NYTimes article portraying the fast rise and collapse of the Irish economy. The majority of Irish peoples are accustomed to economic stagnation and hardship. However, in recent years, Ireland enjoyed a brief euphoric boom where family homes in Dublin were worth as much as in Beverly Hills. Now, housing prices have fallen in Ireland by as much as 50%, bank shares dropping by 90%.

Irish banks are in trouble not for lending to individuals, but for doling out loans to flashy developers, like Sean Dunne, who is described in this article as brazen at the deal table and living a lavish Donald-Trump-like lifestyle. Mr. Dunne conducts his interview with the Times concerning his pending insolvency posthumously from a Dublin pub at 3am. Possibly on his fifth pint of Guinness “capping a night of Champagne cocktails, followed by a wine-soaked dinner”, Mr. Dunne speaks without a slur and is quite clear about facts foreshadowing collapse of his personal fortune.

Ireland’s government tax breaks, Irish banks and yacht hopping developers like Mr. Dunne, who himself grew up in the poorest of Irish villages, created their own housing bubble which has served to reverse the fortunes of Ireland’s people much like our government policies (or lack there-of), hedge fund and private-equity elite have done for so many people in America.

The pajama index is soaring in Limerick where layoffs have picked up speed in the last month, resulting in a 14% unemployment rate. The people of Limerick are left wondering how a once charmed professional life became so hopeless. Mothers still dressed in pajamas walk along empty garbage strewn roads taking their children home from school.

Not unlike Irish communities, my own town of Fort Collins, CO, once entirely dependant on agriculture, has tried for decades to cultivate new business and industry in a forever stagnant local economy. I was born here, started working when I was 14, watched my parents struggle to earn a living here, and yet I, like so many, will stay in Fort Collins for the community that I believe is the best place for my children. There is still little industry here to speak of – more a hodge-podge of satellite offices for tech companies, a solid university and hospital system, and many, many cottage industries – all struggling to find money after the credit collapse.

The housing bust/credit collapse has hit Fort Collins harder than any of our local milk-toast journalists is reporting. I’ve heard business activity is “virtually non-existent” with some commercial real estate forecasts dropping 40% for 2009 and unemployment for the area rising to 4.7%. The lack of candor, real life stories in our own media seems misleading. Perhaps it’s because few interviews occur over pints at 3am? Looking around, I’d even say today’s ‘pajama index’ in Fort Collins isn’t as dire (yet) as in places like Limerick, Ireland – but I sure as hell appreciate their circumstances and will to move on. Even the flamboyant Mr. Dunne insists he “will not fail”, that “God made me with heavy shoulders and an ability to carry a great load”.

Befitting is this bit of limerick; Faith, hope and fact were sitting on a wall when faith took an awful fall. Hope fell down, but fact held on, pulled hope up and faith came back too. (or something like that)

You could say fact is found in here. Fort Collins possesses the kind of people who will work their butts off, make sacrifices caring less about the desperation for accumulating wealth, and in doing so ultimately will save this community. They will all be locals - people who have lived here for decades, people who know how to sacrifice and pull themselves up by their bootstraps rather than wait for a queue of bankers to line up to lend to them. They will teach their kids (the children of the community) to do the same and Fort Collins will march on. This is a fact. (Fact enough to bring hope and faith back too)

Here’s where I get OPEDish – Fort Collins has two new leaders, Steve Dunn, the new City of Fort Collins Planning Director and Matt Robenalt, the new head of the Downtown Development Authority. The more our leadership looks to the local small business community, the better off we’ll all be – slow and steady. And I don’t mean building any more buildings, I mean filling the ones we have. In 2009, I hope to hear of tax breaks for small businesses leasing the empty spaces we have and funding for marketing and promoting our local cottage industries globally through the internet. Keep us in Fort Collins and out of our pajamas - simple as that. I’m off the soapbox.

A friend of mine from Fort Collins will be traveling to Ireland in March on a steal - for around $800, she’ll get; air fair from NY, a week of B&Bs, a car rental and most of her meals. In the event I can’t go, I hope she’ll bring back some Irish gusto, or maybe just Gerard Butler for me.

Anyway… to the town of Limerick and Fort Collins, athbhliain faoi mhaise dhuit! (A prosperous new year to you!)

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A positive note in a sea of downers… a new study out from researchers at Stony Brook University shows 10 % of couples together 20 plus years had the same chemical reactions when they saw photos of their lovers as new lovers had. Citing that prior studies suggested the rate of romantic love fades inside 15 months and after ten years it is gone completely.

Good. Well, we have proof true love can last. Now all we have to do is..? If I had that answer I’d put match and eharmony out of business. Hmm.

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Articles in mass media indicate a lot – especially when they lambaste the ad revenue model for social networks. This New York Times article, gently titled Advertisers Face Hurdles on Social Networks, is thoroughly entertaining. I feel the same way I did a few months ago during the sub prime collapse – happy I had no money in the market or tied up in a house. Social advertising hasn’t imploded yet, but, like a game of Battleship, this information is a direct hit to investors and advertisers keeping the Facebook aircraft carrier above water.

This is stuff companies with any online ad model or online advertising spend should closely follow (or have a trusted advisor follow for them). Articles like this one are popping up more and more and the so-called experts who once guided advertisers into the social ocean are now stepping back as well.

I’m happy to highlight an excerpt from Seth Goldstein, co-founder of SocialMedia Networks, an online advertising company. According to the New York Times article, Mr. Goldstein wrote on his Facebook blog that a banner as “is universally disregarded as irrelevant if it’s not ignored entirely.” Another notable mention within this NYT article comes from an IDC report, which published a study last month that reported just 3% of Internet users in the US would willingly let publishers use their friends for advertising and described social advertising as “stillborn.” Ick. That pretty much sums it up for advertisers still buying social ads presuming they will convert traffic into revenue.

I must point out that I am on Facebook and what once was an experiment to see what’s happening out there, has turned into a place I hit daily to see friends from 1982 and their kids. Without FB, we probably would never have connected. It can be fun too. For instance I’ve joined one of the gazillions of user generated ‘groups’, “I Don’t Care How Comfortable Crocs Are, You Look Like a Dumbass.” This group currently has 1,238,687 members from all over the world. I can see their pics, talk to them, launch a new line of footwear to them or just get them to laugh at my run ins with Crocs wearers. I can see over a million profiles and users by country within this group –it’s a marketer’s wet dream, so-to-speak, and a Crocs shareholders nightmare. But it’s reality folks! Sorry if you were duped into wearing them or investing in them. Here’s where I make my point. Corporations can also start Facebook groups themselves. According to the NYT article, PG’s most ‘successful’ group to date is the Crest Whitestrips “fans”. After running expensive enticements for becoming a ‘fan’ – such as free movie tickets and Def Jam concerts, P&G netted 14,000 fans (a great success?).

Just as the fascinating report I found yesterday indicates, members of social networks want to spend time with friends, not brands. With 40 million social networkers and 105 million contributors available, there is HUGE motivation to figure out how brands can have some type of ability to persuade their available audiences with the incredibly detailed demographics available within social networks.

Again, contact me, if your company wants to be savvy in reaching your online audience for meaningful revenue results.

Whatever boat you’re on, you should read this article; it’s juicy and will impress your VP of Marketing (and Financial Advisor if you own Crocs stock). They will always remember the gift of serious heartburn you gave them over the holidays.

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Readwriteweb tipped me off to a juicy end of 2008 report on Social Networking from Netpop Research. Until Jan 31, this report is FREE! I encourage any organisation currently active inside social networks to look this over. For those not-so-internet savvy folks catching the hoopla and trying to figure all of this out – contact me!

Advertising or becoming active in social media is not for every organisation. It is critical for ANY size company in ANY industry to pay attention the trends in social media in order to plan for protecting and/or properly promoting their business interests now and in the future. Where you leave your company’s digital footprint (whether it’s your PR staff, the CEO or the CEO’s son engaging in social networks professionally or for fodder) could hurt the company.

So, while I find this information excellent, I post it openly with caution. Do not enter the social stratosphere without a clear plan, processes, procedures and support!

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Society is forever marked and a young intern’s professional life may be over. As reported by WSJ on line, while its revenue model is full of thorns, Facebook proves to be an excellent record of truth.

Is this just about another dorky photo posted on line, another life relegated to steerage with no chance whatsoever of getting lucky or into a Duke graduate program? Or is it evidence of more than that?

Extrapolate this one example and look at the bigger multi-media canvas we’re painting of ourselves. What Andy Warhol did to forever capture pop culture in the 50s/60s, we’re doing for ourselves on social networks. What does this say about who we are? As marketers? As innovators? As a culture? What will we leave behind? (Please Lord; let not Mark Zuckerberg ever think he’s as clever as Andy Warhol was.)

If social networking allows permanent evidence as to one’s contribution and character it’s doing so for our entire culture. People who actually think they are cool will at best be proven wrong and at worst lump us all together with them as the culture dumb enough to be fooled by an advertising model to voluntarily expose themselves wearing fairy suits. Think of this in terms of the discovery of Lascaux, or what the Egyptians painted on their walls.

Are we ridiculous or what?

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Does anyone else picture Larry Page and Sergey Brin in bibs, bonnets and pacifiers?

Well, perhaps that wasn’t the intention of the savvy Gurgle.com URL reservation. But - it does provide the potential for a hilarious Onionesque anecdotal URL to Google as their value has begun to slurp, glurp, and gurgle down the drain.

So, what is Gurgle.com? Perhaps it will be the next social networking site for mother’s to be gobbled up by babycenter. Recently babycenter acquired mayasmom for somehere around 7 million. Gurgle happens to be UK based where some 750,000 babies are born each year. AND - where mothers get upwards of 12 months maternity leave to spend with their newborn. Pop in the value of the dollar and I think UK moms can pump up any motherhood based social network company’s ad model substantially.

A year ago I was a named advisor for a US based social network targeting US moms. There couldn’t be a more elusive target than American moms. If we have money to spend that means we’re working. If we’re working, we can’t be on line nor very social. (I have 6 years of photos and memorabilia in plastic bins, unlikely to be organized into any sort of scrapbook until my kids are in college). If we are at home, we have little money. Either way we are a difficult target market to base any ad model on. (Unless you are Target, Food Network, Whole Foods or Disney).

2008 predictions… I predict UK moms will kick US moms behinds in the blogosphere in terms of; activity, time, shopping and spending on line.

If they aren’t invested already, babycenter (owned by Johnson & Johnson) will invest in Gurgle.com. If they don’t, I then predict the Gurgle URL alone will be worth nine figures.

Bravo Gurgle.com, bravo.

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